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Alanyaspor 4–1 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win47%2.08
Genclerbirligi win27%3.55
Draw26%3.79

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Mbilla Etame · Alanyaspor
20'⚽Junior Fernandes · Alanyaspor
22'🟨Uğur Çiftçi · Genclerbirligi
33'🟨Abdulrahman Khalili · Genclerbirligi
58'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
65'⚽Ahmet İlhan Özek · Genclerbirligi
69'🟨Georgios Tzavellas · Alanyaspor
70'🟨Serdar Özkan · Genclerbirligi
75'🟥Georgios Tzavellas · Alanyaspor
87'🟨Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Zeki Yavru · Genclerbirligi
90'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots6
7On target3
2Corners4
9Fouls20
2Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.39
box share (last 5)0.590.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1035.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
334.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.472.32
elo1456.911472.07
elo momentum (last 5)9.01-29.81
eye test v10.24-0.31
eye trend v1-0.130.43
first sub minute (last 10)54.9047.20
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.420.57
keeper form v10.390.60
league points7.004.00
league rank13.0017.00
matches since blank6.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8066.20
possession avg (last 5)41.6040.80
rest days8.858.00
scorer concentration0.430.40
season ppg1.170.67
skill v1-0.75-1.69
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
state index-0.22-0.71
sterile dominance v1-0.96-1.14
threat rate (last 10)0.290.22
threat rate (last 3)0.320.28
threat rate (last 5)0.290.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60