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Yeni Malatyaspor 1–1 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Koray Gencerler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor win44%2.23
Draw28%3.45
Konyaspor win28%3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Patrick Friday Eze · Konyaspor
33'🟨Adem Büyük · Yeni Malatyaspor
33'🟨Ali Turan · Konyaspor
34'🟨Issam Chebake · Yeni Malatyaspor
49'🟨Buğra Çağıran · Yeni Malatyaspor
53'🟨Murat Yildirim · Yeni Malatyaspor
70'⚽Aytaç Kara · Yeni Malatyaspor
75'🟨Ferhat Öztorun · Konyaspor
90'🟨Buğra Çağıran · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'🟥Buğra Çağıran · Yeni Malatyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
4Shots6
1On target2
3Corners2
15Fouls22
5Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.30
box share (last 5)0.630.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days30.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMalatya Inönü Stadium
0.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)—3.67
elo1486.791459.54
elo momentum (last 5)-23.870.67
eye test v10.13-0.32
eye trend v10.070.24
first sub minute (last 10)62.6756.40
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)—1.05
keeper form v10.380.72
league points7.006.00
league rank13.0014.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0077.80
possession avg (last 5)51.2046.20
rest days7.002.75
scorer concentration0.500.29
season ppg1.171.00
skill v10.25-0.12
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.173.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.60
state index-0.44-0.53
sterile dominance v1-0.04-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.28
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)—0.00