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Kayserispor 3–1 Bursaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win47%2.06
Draw27%3.57
Bursaspor win25%3.87

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Titi · Bursaspor
15'⚽Güray Vural · Kayserispor
39'⚽William Troost-Ekong · Bursaspor
64'🟨Aziz Behich · Bursaspor
73'⚽Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik · Kayserispor
86'🟨Ryan Mendes · Kayserispor
87'⚽Ryan Mendes · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots7
4On target2
5Corners7
12Fouls11
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporBursaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.49
box share (last 5)0.490.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days272.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
121.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.651.71
elo1504.741439.57
elo momentum (last 5)42.1341.95
eye test v10.05-0.05
eye trend v1-0.030.35
first sub minute (last 10)53.2055.30
form points (last 5)11.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.35
keeper form v10.690.65
league points11.009.00
league rank6.008.00
matches since blank6.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8074.20
possession avg (last 5)50.8041.40
rest days6.005.88
scorer concentration0.220.36
season ppg1.831.50
skill v10.20-0.82
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.20
state index0.420.12
sterile dominance v10.40-0.51
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.200.28
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20