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Sivasspor 3–1 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Cuneyt Cakir, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win36%2.68
Antalyaspor win36%2.74
Draw28%3.48

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Hakan Arslan · Sivasspor
8'🟨Thievy Bifouma · Sivasspor
23'🟨Maicon · Antalyaspor
38'⚽Hakan Arslan · Sivasspor
39'🟨Diego Angelo · Antalyaspor
42'⚽Hakan Arslan · Sivasspor
43'🟨Hakan Arslan · Sivasspor
45'🟨Charles · Antalyaspor
57'🟥Delvin N'Dinga · Sivasspor
60'⚽Johan Djourou · Antalyaspor
62'🟨William Vainqueur · Antalyaspor
75'🟨Sakıb Aytaç · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
8Shots14
4On target7
4Corners3
16Fouls22
2Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.210.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.44
box share (last 5)0.520.71
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days213.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni 4 Eylül Stadyumu
364.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)—3.06
elo1480.701547.85
elo momentum (last 5)-12.04-9.27
eye test v1-0.15-0.12
eye trend v10.56-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)48.5058.00
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)—1.34
keeper form v10.590.67
league points6.006.00
league rank13.0015.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6082.40
possession avg (last 5)46.4055.00
rest days6.004.75
scorer concentration0.330.33
season ppg1.001.00
skill v1-0.120.97
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.174.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.80
state index-0.370.05
sterile dominance v1-0.601.15
threat rate (last 10)0.270.20
threat rate (last 3)0.290.16
threat rate (last 5)0.300.16
venue ppg (last 5)—1.40