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Goztep 3–2 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mustafa Ogretmenoglu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win49%1.98
Draw26%3.77
Genclerbirligi win25%3.92

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Kamal Issah · Genclerbirligi
36'⚽Ezequiel Scarione · Goztep
38'⚽Tayfur Bingöl · Goztep
41'⚽Petar Škuletić · Genclerbirligi
58'🟨Yoan Gouffran · Goztep
59'🟨Adis Jahović · Goztep
76'⚽Adis Jahović · Goztep
77'🟨Ousmane N'Diaye · Genclerbirligi
87'⚽Serdar Özkan · Genclerbirligi
90'🟨Halil Akbunar · Goztep
90'🟨Zeki Yavru · Genclerbirligi
90'🟨Ahmet Oğuz · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
12Shots10
8On target6
5Corners6
13Fouls18
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.35
box share (last 5)0.490.48
cards avg (last 5)—0.00
coach days78.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBornova Stadyumu
320.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)—4.36
elo1517.161466.01
elo momentum (last 5)—-30.52
eye test v10.30-0.94
eye trend v1—-0.00
first sub minute (last 10)65.7545.00
form points (last 5)—4.00
goal diff avg (last 5)—-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)—1.80
goals for avg (last 5)—0.80
goals volatility (last 10)—0.63
keeper form v10.790.57
league points7.001.00
league rank8.0017.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0066.40
possession avg (last 5)43.0040.20
rest days7.137.13
scorer concentration0.40—
season ppg1.750.25
skill v1-1.14-1.71
sot against avg (last 5)4.504.20
sot for avg (last 10)—3.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.252.80
state index0.15-0.80
sterile dominance v1-0.95-0.84
threat rate (last 10)—0.22
threat rate (last 3)0.290.24
threat rate (last 5)0.270.22
venue ppg (last 5)—0.80