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Osmanlispor 2–4 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win49%1.99
Draw27%3.61
Sivasspor win24%4.06

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽ (pen)Arouna Koné · Sivasspor
10'⚽Numan Çürüksu · Osmanlispor
23'⚽Numan Çürüksu · Osmanlispor
31'🟨Ziya Erdal · Sivasspor
34'⚽Emre Kılınç · Sivasspor
41'🟨Anil Karaer · Osmanlispor
43'🟨Josué · Osmanlispor
43'🟨Sergiy Rybalka · Sivasspor
45'⚽Thievy Bifouma · Sivasspor
45'⚽Thievy Bifouma · Sivasspor
67'🟨Emre Kılınç · Sivasspor
76'🟨Thievy Bifouma · Sivasspor
81'🟨Rıdvan Şimşek · Sivasspor
86'🟨Elderson Echiejile · Sivasspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score4
10Shots15
5On target8
6Corners7
9Fouls17
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOsmanlisporSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.28—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.15
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.11
box share (last 5)0.530.43
cards avg (last 5)0.00—
coach days108.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOsmanlı Stadyumu
200.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.36—
elo1421.531476.26
elo momentum (last 5)-41.21—
eye test v10.55-1.42
eye trend v10.37—
first sub minute (last 10)57.4051.25
form points (last 5)1.00—
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.00—
goals against avg (last 5)2.80—
goals for avg (last 5)0.80—
goals volatility (last 10)0.71—
keeper form v10.600.60
league points1.003.00
league rank18.0014.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet9.002.00
matches since win10.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2076.75
possession avg (last 5)47.6046.25
rest days7.008.00
season ppg0.250.75
skill v10.13-0.22
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.25
sot for avg (last 10)4.30—
sot for avg (last 3)5.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.001.25
state index-1.50-0.25
sterile dominance v1-0.82-0.11
threat rate (last 10)0.28—
threat rate (last 3)0.360.26
threat rate (last 5)0.350.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.20—