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Akhisarspor 2–1 Kardemir Karabukspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Umit Ozturk, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win52%1.88
Draw25%3.82
Kardemir Karabukspor win23%4.28

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Gheorghe Grozav · Kardemir Karabukspor
24'🟨Ceyhun Gülselam · Kardemir Karabukspor
27'⚽Paulo Henrique · Akhisarspor
36'🟨Ömer Bayram · Akhisarspor
58'⚽ (pen)Soner Aydoğdu · Akhisarspor
59'🟨Dany Nounkeu · Kardemir Karabukspor
76'🟨Soner Aydoğdu · Akhisarspor
90'🟨Cristian Tănase · Kardemir Karabukspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
8Shots7
3On target4
2Corners3
15Fouls18
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporKardemir Karabukspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.30
box share (last 5)0.710.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days199.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueManisa 19 Mayis
227.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.652.49
elo1532.531479.32
elo momentum (last 5)-19.8631.47
eye test v1-0.01-0.26
eye trend v1-0.250.46
first sub minute (last 10)64.4059.70
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.651.16
keeper form v10.730.67
league points7.005.00
league rank6.0010.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.008.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2071.20
possession avg (last 5)47.6050.40
rest days6.007.13
scorer concentration0.20—
season ppg1.751.25
skill v10.34-0.50
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.00
state index-0.010.11
sterile dominance v1-0.09-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.31
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.00