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Yeni Malatyaspor 2–4 Bursaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bulent Yildirim, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor win42%2.34
Bursaspor win31%3.15
Draw27%3.56

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽William Troost-Ekong · Bursaspor
30'🟨Mikel Agu · Bursaspor
37'🟨Issam Chebake · Yeni Malatyaspor
45'⚽Pablo Batalla · Bursaspor
48'⚽Jires Kembo-Ekoko · Bursaspor
56'🟨Titi · Bursaspor
63'⚽Bogdan Stancu · Bursaspor
71'🟨Khalid Boutaïb · Yeni Malatyaspor
76'⚽Khalid Boutaïb · Yeni Malatyaspor
77'🟨Emmanuel Badu · Bursaspor
79'⚽Emanuel Dening · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'🟨Arturo Mina · Yeni Malatyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
11Shots7
3On target4
5Corners3
8Fouls18
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporBursaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.35
box share (last 5)0.570.53
cards avg (last 5)—0.00
coach days15.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMalatya Inönü Stadium
107.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)—1.89
elo1489.161426.85
elo momentum (last 5)—41.90
eye test v10.17-0.21
eye trend v1—0.15
first sub minute (last 10)64.2552.20
form points (last 5)—9.00
goal diff avg (last 5)—0.60
goals against avg (last 5)—1.20
goals for avg (last 5)—1.80
goals volatility (last 10)—1.20
keeper form v1—0.54
league points4.006.00
league rank13.009.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0078.40
possession avg (last 5)51.0043.20
rest days4.885.88
scorer concentration—0.50
season ppg1.001.50
skill v10.56-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)3.254.40
sot for avg (last 10)—3.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.253.60
state index-0.350.04
sterile dominance v10.10-0.45
threat rate (last 10)—0.22
threat rate (last 3)0.250.23
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)—0.60