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Kayserispor 2–0 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Fri, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win39%2.53
Antalyaspor win32%3.01
Draw29%3.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Stéphane Badji · Kayserispor
30'🟨Diego Angelo · Antalyaspor
36'🟨Sakıb Aytaç · Antalyaspor
63'🟨Oleksandr Kucher · Kayserispor
77'⚽Umut Bulut · Kayserispor
81'🟨Samir Nasri · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Tiago Lopes · Kayserispor
90'🟨Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Maicon · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots4
3On target2
5Corners5
6Fouls11
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.38
box share (last 5)0.490.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days257.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
349.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.673.16
elo1487.881554.46
elo momentum (last 5)7.09-3.29
eye test v1-0.13-0.35
eye trend v1-0.05-0.37
first sub minute (last 10)57.9058.90
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.66
keeper form v10.570.67
league points7.003.00
league rank8.0016.00
matches since blank4.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0079.80
possession avg (last 5)45.0051.00
rest days6.135.00
scorer concentration0.33—
season ppg1.750.75
skill v1-0.380.43
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.705.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.40
state index-0.000.08
sterile dominance v1-0.070.61
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.19
threat rate (last 5)0.210.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00