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Kayserispor 2–2 Osmanlispor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win36%2.68
Kayserispor win36%2.74
Draw28%3.48

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Stéphane Badji · Kayserispor
14'⚽Silvestre Varela · Kayserispor
15'⚽Souleymane Doukara · Osmanlispor
68'🟨Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
70'🟨Şamil Çinaz · Kayserispor
74'🟨Silvestre Varela · Kayserispor
74'🟨Silvestre Varela · Kayserispor
74'🟥Silvestre Varela · Kayserispor
77'⚽Musa Çağıran · Osmanlispor
87'⚽Ryan Mendes · Kayserispor
90'🟨Tugay Kaçar · Osmanlispor
90'🟨Souleymane Doukara · Osmanlispor
90'🟥Tugay Kaçar · Osmanlispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
8Shots13
4On target4
6Corners3
13Fouls9
5Yellow cards1
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporOsmanlispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.32
box share (last 5)0.480.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days237.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
86.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.672.04
elo1472.021433.50
elo momentum (last 5)-12.21-51.67
eye test v1-0.140.50
eye trend v1-0.080.16
first sub minute (last 10)58.8056.70
form points (last 5)5.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-2.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.23
keeper form v10.620.64
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.007.00
matches since win0.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4082.00
possession avg (last 5)44.6053.40
rest days6.077.00
season ppg1.500.00
skill v1-0.560.83
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.00
state index-0.20-1.46
sterile dominance v1-0.340.08
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.200.32
threat rate (last 5)0.230.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60