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Alanyaspor 1–1 Kardemir Karabukspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Fri, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win45%2.17
Kardemir Karabukspor win29%3.40
Draw26%3.72

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽ (og)Mamadou Fofana · Kardemir Karabukspor
38'🟨Cristian Tănase · Kardemir Karabukspor
44'🟨Ceyhun Gülselam · Kardemir Karabukspor
74'🟨André Poko · Kardemir Karabukspor
77'🟨Chisamba Lungu · Alanyaspor
79'🟨Ilhan Depe · Kardemir Karabukspor
90'🟨Paul Papp · Kardemir Karabukspor
90'⚽Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
6Shots12
3On target6
9Corners2
9Fouls27
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporKardemir Karabukspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.24
box share (last 5)0.540.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days998.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
205.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.282.58
elo1438.181484.86
elo momentum (last 5)-57.9921.54
eye test v10.73-0.61
eye trend v10.310.13
first sub minute (last 10)62.9060.60
form points (last 5)0.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.23
keeper form v10.540.63
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet15.006.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.0073.40
possession avg (last 5)53.4050.60
rest days6.086.11
season ppg0.002.00
skill v11.15-0.25
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.00
state index-1.170.03
sterile dominance v10.12-0.16
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.340.22
threat rate (last 5)0.300.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00