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Konyaspor 3–0 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2017 · Mon, Aug 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Arda Kardesler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win41%2.38
Draw31%3.17
Genclerbirligi win28%3.45

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Musa Araz · Konyaspor
43'⚽Nejc Skubic · Konyaspor
45'🟨Deni Milošević · Konyaspor
53'⚽Musa Araz · Konyaspor
83'🟨Halil Ibrahim Pehlivan · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
9Shots6
6On target3
1Corners2
14Fouls15
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.490.67
cards avg (last 5)0.400.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
coach days1055.00293.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.384.40
elo1522.361558.53
elo momentum (last 5)-22.5416.20
eye test v1-0.27-0.66
eye trend v1-0.11-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)49.7043.90
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.620.72
matches since blank3.007.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6072.20
possession avg (last 5)53.2046.00
rest days8.009.00
season ppg0.001.00
skill v10.57-0.69
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.20
squad age28.1526.76
state index-0.390.37
sterile dominance v10.47-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.190.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.18
threat rate (last 5)0.220.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40