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Akhisarspor 1–0 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Baris Simsek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win49%2.01
Draw27%3.61
Sivasspor win24%4.02

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'🟨Rıdvan Şimşek · Sivasspor
73'⚽Paulo Henrique · Akhisarspor
76'🟨Hakan Arslan · Sivasspor
78'🟨Ömer Bayram · Akhisarspor
79'🟨Miguel Lopes · Akhisarspor
80'🟨Hakan Bilgiç · Sivasspor
82'🟨Olcan Adın · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots5
3On target1
3Corners4
17Fouls15
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.45—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.29—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.41—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.79—
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueManisa 19 Mayis
coach days164.00164.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d0.000.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40—
corners against avg (last 5)4.20—
corners for avg (last 5)3.80—
corners volatility (last 10)2.05—
elo1612.411520.85
elo momentum (last 5)45.5425.25
eye test v10.64—
eye trend v1-0.20—
first sub minute (last 10)59.40—
form points (last 5)12.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)3.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)3.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.560.63
h2 goals (last 10)1.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v10.76—
matches since blank13.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.006.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.80—
possession avg (last 5)45.00—
rest days30.0030.00
skill v10.13—
sot against avg (last 5)3.40—
sot for avg (last 10)5.20—
sot for avg (last 3)4.67—
sot for avg (last 5)5.00—
squad age29.16—
state index1.450.23
sterile dominance v1-0.68—
threat rate (last 10)0.30—
threat rate (last 3)0.39—
threat rate (last 5)0.32—
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.00