β SΓΌper Lig 2017 Β· Sat, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Baris Simsek, Turkey
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Akhisarspor win | 49% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.61 |
| Sivasspor win | 24% | 4.02 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand