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Racing Club de Lens 2–1 AJ Auxerre

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephane Jochem, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win55%1.76
Draw23%4.09
AJ Auxerre win22%4.39

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Lamine Fomba · AJ Auxerre
47'⚽Cristian López · Racing Club de Lens
51'⚽Walid Mesloub · Racing Club de Lens
73'🟨Souleymane Diarra · Racing Club de Lens
81'⚽Francois-Xavier Fumu Tamuzo · AJ Auxerre

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots9
4On target4
7Corners5
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensAJ Auxerre
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.570.51
cards avg (last 5)1.801.00
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
10.00
161.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.19
corner diff avg (last 5)4.40-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.062.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.320.18
dominance (last 5)0.610.39
elo1483.021430.89
elo momentum (last 5)-25.46-13.18
eye test v10.31-0.73
eye trend v1-0.060.01
first sub minute (last 10)51.9059.60
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.85
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
keeper form v10.51—
league points53.0054.00
league rank14.0013.00
matches since blank2.0015.00
matches since clean sheet1.0011.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8073.00
possession avg (last 5)60.6048.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.140.22
season ppg1.231.26
shot diff avg (last 5)4.00-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.806.60
skill v11.48-0.47
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.00
squad age25.5523.81
state index-0.44-0.80
sterile dominance v11.16-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.210.22
threat rate (last 3)0.160.23
threat rate (last 5)0.210.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60