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Reims 0–1 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2017 Β· Mon, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Sylvain Palhies, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win48%2.04
Draw28%3.52
Le Havre AC win25%3.93

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Harold Moukoudi · Le Havre AC
90'🟨Pablo Chavarria · Reims
90'🟨Amos Youga · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots10
2On target5
9Corners4
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricReimsLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.720.76
cards avg (last 5)0.800.40
coach days364.00576.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.260.16
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Delaune
corner diff avg (last 5)
-0.40
-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.206.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.14
dominance (last 5)0.620.63
elo1692.411521.42
elo momentum (last 5)38.4339.87
eye test v10.501.06
eye trend v1-0.150.52
first sub minute (last 10)64.0064.20
form points (last 5)15.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.602.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.18
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.25
keeper form v10.790.73
league points102.0065.00
league rank2.008.00
matches since blank13.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0076.80
possession avg (last 5)47.8048.60
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.230.28
season ppg2.491.59
shot diff avg (last 5)4.404.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.4013.00
skill v1-0.30-0.06
sot against avg (last 5)2.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.337.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.406.60
squad age25.4924.56
state index1.420.37
sterile dominance v1-0.68-0.79
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.300.36
threat rate (last 5)0.300.34
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.20