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Nimes 1–0 FC Lorient

← Ligue 2 2017 · Tue, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win55%1.76
Draw24%4.00
FC Lorient win20%4.76

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽ (og)Ibrahima Sory Conté · Nimes
29'🟨Zargo Touré · FC Lorient
37'🟨Fabien Lemoine · FC Lorient
47'🟨Teji Savanier · Nimes
58'🟨Romain Del Castillo · Nimes
60'🟥Denis Bouanga · FC Lorient
67'🟨Theo Valls · Nimes
90'🟥Teji Savanier · Nimes
90'🟥Ibrahima Sory Conté · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
21Shots2
12On target1
7Corners2
3Yellow cards2
1Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNimesFC Lorient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.39—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.45—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.40—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.53—
cards avg (last 5)0.802.60
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Costières
905.00
329.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.15
corner diff avg (last 5)3.001.20
corners against avg (last 5)2.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.581.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.19
dominance (last 5)0.470.50
elo1602.411526.16
elo momentum (last 5)-15.07-33.41
eye test v10.05-0.25
eye trend v1-0.130.03
first sub minute (last 10)71.7056.60
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.97
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.45
keeper form v10.710.57
league points75.0062.00
league rank3.0010.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2085.40
possession avg (last 5)52.2055.40
rest days3.834.00
scorer concentration0.340.17
season ppg1.921.63
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.200.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.207.80
skill v1-0.191.29
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.503.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.40
squad age25.2424.62
state index-0.00-0.43
sterile dominance v10.071.16
threat rate (last 10)0.260.19
threat rate (last 3)0.220.18
threat rate (last 5)0.230.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20