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Nancy 2–1 AJ Auxerre

← Ligue 2 2017 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sylvain Palhies, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nancy win45%2.16
Draw30%3.23
AJ Auxerre win25%3.89

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Arnaud Nordin · Nancy
39'⚽Mohamed Yattara · AJ Auxerre
43'⚽Arnaud Nordin · Nancy
50'🟨Ibrahim Sangaré · AJ Auxerre
59'🟨Romain Philippoteaux · AJ Auxerre
62'🟨Alaeddine Yahia · Nancy

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
11Shots6
8On target2
5Corners0
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNancyAJ Auxerre
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.610.48
cards avg (last 5)2.000.80
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Picot
20.00
141.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.20
corner diff avg (last 5)0.804.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.402.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.422.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.20
dominance (last 5)0.390.46
elo1395.181434.98
elo momentum (last 5)-8.98-17.13
eye test v1-1.150.31
eye trend v1-0.280.22
first sub minute (last 10)59.4064.00
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.201.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.680.69
league points35.0050.00
league rank17.0012.00
matches since blank0.0011.00
matches since clean sheet4.007.00
matches since win4.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.8078.60
possession avg (last 5)41.6055.40
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.250.22
season ppg0.901.28
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.20-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)6.209.60
skill v1-1.470.59
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)1.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.405.20
squad age27.8725.36
state index-0.86-0.69
sterile dominance v1-0.300.53
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.21
threat rate (last 5)0.170.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60