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Racing Club de Lens 3–3 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aurelien Petit, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win40%2.44
Le Havre AC win31%3.14
Draw29%3.32

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Walid Mesloub · Racing Club de Lens
11'⚽Jean-Philippe Mateta · Le Havre AC
36'⚽Cyrille Bayala · Racing Club de Lens
40'🟨Alex Gersbach · Racing Club de Lens
45'🟨Kévin Fortuné · Racing Club de Lens
45'⚽Kévin Fortuné · Racing Club de Lens
57'⚽Harold Moukoudi · Le Havre AC
69'🟨Cyrille Bayala · Racing Club de Lens
70'⚽Alexandre Bonnet · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
12Shots12
6On target7
7Corners6
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.580.68
cards avg (last 5)1.201.00
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
242.00
566.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.09
corner diff avg (last 5)3.803.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.207.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.032.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.220.17
dominance (last 5)0.590.54
elo1508.531497.11
elo momentum (last 5)-19.15-37.66
eye test v10.24-0.13
eye trend v10.420.25
first sub minute (last 10)55.2065.30
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.700.83
league points49.0058.00
league rank13.0010.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet16.007.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.8077.60
possession avg (last 5)65.2049.60
rest days7.006.83
scorer concentration0.130.26
season ppg1.261.53
shot diff avg (last 5)3.801.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.4010.80
skill v11.900.09
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.00
squad age26.2424.16
state index-0.35-0.59
sterile dominance v11.33-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.260.28
threat rate (last 5)0.230.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20