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Clermont 4–2 Orleans

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Faouzi Benchabane

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win62%1.57
Draw23%4.22
Orleans win15%6.43

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Cédric Cambon · Orleans
16'⚽ (og)Gauthier Pinaud · Clermont
36'🟨Ousmane Cissokho · Orleans
40'⚽Hicham Benkaid · Orleans
48'🟨Jonathan Iglesias · Clermont
53'⚽Mathias Pereira Lage · Clermont
67'🟨Denis Will Poha · Orleans
70'⚽Ludovic Ajorque · Clermont
71'🟥Hicham Benkaid · Orleans
74'🟨Ousmane Cissokho · Orleans
74'🟥Ousmane Cissokho · Orleans
85'⚽Yannick Gomis · Orleans
87'⚽Remy Dugimont · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots13
10On target8
4Corners4
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontOrleans
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.660.74
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied
2119.00
2119.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.18
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.481.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.23
dominance (last 5)0.530.44
elo1545.031434.74
elo momentum (last 5)-7.342.40
eye test v10.64-0.78
eye trend v10.430.11
first sub minute (last 10)68.5059.00
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.520.71
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.720.56
league points68.0048.00
league rank4.0014.00
matches since blank16.0014.00
matches since clean sheet3.006.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0079.20
possession avg (last 5)50.2047.40
rest days7.006.83
scorer concentration0.330.23
season ppg1.741.30
shot diff avg (last 5)1.60-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.407.80
skill v10.280.11
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.402.60
squad age25.0328.00
state index0.18-0.42
sterile dominance v1-0.320.22
threat rate (last 10)0.270.20
threat rate (last 3)0.320.22
threat rate (last 5)0.300.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40