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FC Lorient 0–1 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win64%1.53
Draw22%4.50
Valenciennes win15%6.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Steven Moreira · FC Lorient
24'🟨Lindsay Rose · FC Lorient
33'🟨Johann Ramare · Valenciennes
37'⚽Gaëtan Robail · Valenciennes
55'🟨Vincent Le Goff · FC Lorient
72'🟨Mattéo Guendouzi · FC Lorient
87'🟨Gaël Danic · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
7Shots9
1On target5
8Corners4
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC LorientValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
box share (last 5)0.500.52
cards avg (last 5)2.402.40
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Moustoir
325.00
840.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.17
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.491.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.22
dominance (last 5)0.490.50
elo1541.271405.47
elo momentum (last 5)-9.89-7.64
eye test v1-0.11-0.29
eye trend v1-0.07-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)57.5058.80
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.40
keeper form v10.550.67
league points62.0043.00
league rank9.0015.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.008.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.0072.00
possession avg (last 5)55.4048.40
rest days4.006.83
scorer concentration0.170.24
season ppg1.681.16
shot diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.209.80
skill v11.25-0.57
sot against avg (last 5)3.606.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.00
squad age25.0026.49
state index-0.02-0.75
sterile dominance v11.12-0.25
threat rate (last 10)0.190.22
threat rate (last 3)0.160.21
threat rate (last 5)0.180.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80