⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Niort 2–2 Racing Club de Lens

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Eric Wattellier, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win39%2.52
Draw31%3.10
Niort win30%3.22

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

37'⚽ (pen)Kévin Fortuné · Racing Club de Lens
44'🟨Dušan Cvetinović · Racing Club de Lens
45'⚽ (pen)Ande Dona Ndoh · Niort
63'⚽Walid Mesloub · Racing Club de Lens
64'⚽Goduine Koyalipou · Niort
81'🟨Jimmy Roye · Niort

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
5Shots16
3On target11
2Corners10
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNiortRacing Club de Lens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.780.56
cards avg (last 5)1.401.60
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade René-Gaillard
651.00
235.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.802.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.432.92
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.19
dominance (last 5)0.490.58
elo1450.301508.48
elo momentum (last 5)14.76-35.23
eye test v1-0.330.17
eye trend v10.040.43
first sub minute (last 10)59.2051.70
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.600.73
league points52.0048.00
league rank11.0013.00
matches since blank8.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.0015.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.6085.40
possession avg (last 5)49.4066.60
rest days7.004.00
scorer concentration0.330.13
season ppg1.411.26
shot diff avg (last 5)0.002.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.6010.20
skill v1-0.542.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.20
squad age28.3826.23
state index-0.25-0.27
sterile dominance v1-0.181.52
threat rate (last 10)0.240.21
threat rate (last 3)0.240.23
threat rate (last 5)0.230.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.60