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Racing Club de Lens 2–1 Chateauroux

← Ligue 2 2017 · Mon, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephanie Frappart, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win51%1.92
Draw27%3.56
Chateauroux win22%4.39

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

38'⚽Walid Mesloub · Racing Club de Lens
46'🟨Cyrille Bayala · Racing Club de Lens
62'⚽Souleymane Diarra · Racing Club de Lens
68'🟨Grégory Bourillon · Chateauroux
88'⚽Christophe Mandanne · Chateauroux
89'🟨Clément Chantôme · Racing Club de Lens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots7
7On target3
6Corners3
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensChateauroux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.460.43
cards avg (last 5)0.801.40
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
224.00
1644.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d3.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.13
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.406.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.032.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.13
dominance (last 5)0.470.47
elo1504.761506.68
elo momentum (last 5)-42.3131.84
eye test v10.14-0.25
eye trend v10.180.14
first sub minute (last 10)52.7062.80
form points (last 5)2.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.41
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.750.72
league points44.0063.00
league rank13.006.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet13.002.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.8072.80
possession avg (last 5)63.8043.20
rest days15.9616.96
scorer concentration0.140.19
season ppg1.221.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.6010.80
skill v11.80-0.84
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.00
squad age26.1625.45
state index-0.890.35
sterile dominance v11.46-0.84
threat rate (last 10)0.200.27
threat rate (last 3)0.200.28
threat rate (last 5)0.200.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.40