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Nancy 0–2 Reims

← Ligue 2 2017 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win36%2.68
Nancy win33%2.96
Draw31%3.13

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Abou Ba · Nancy
41'🟨Xavier Chavalerin · Reims
45'🟨Julian Jeanvier · Reims
55'⚽Pablo Chavarria · Reims
78'⚽Rémi Oudin · Reims

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
5Shots8
3On target5
7Corners3
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNancyReims
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.53
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.580.61
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Picot
68.00
334.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.26
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)2.606.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.403.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.271.48
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.08
dominance (last 5)0.480.45
elo1406.591653.98
elo momentum (last 5)-7.0311.49
eye test v1-0.560.33
eye trend v10.23-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)60.4054.50
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.29
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.55
keeper form v10.630.82
league points34.0087.00
league rank16.002.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2073.80
possession avg (last 5)51.4047.20
rest days14.9613.96
scorer concentration0.260.21
season ppg0.942.42
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.009.40
skill v1-0.04-0.47
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.20
squad age27.0626.20
state index-0.490.78
sterile dominance v10.18-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.200.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00