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Tours 3–1 FC Lorient

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastien Dechepy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win51%1.92
Draw27%3.66
Tours win23%4.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽ (pen)Sylvain Marveaux · FC Lorient
39'🟨Roderic Filippi · Tours
42'🟨Mayoro N'Doye · Tours
51'🟨Yoane Wissa · FC Lorient
65'⚽Florian Miguel · Tours
77'🟨Gauthier Hein · Tours
80'⚽ (pen)Antoine Devaux · Tours
90'⚽Gauthier Hein · Tours

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots7
7On target3
5Corners2
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricToursFC Lorient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.570.50
cards avg (last 5)1.801.60
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Vallée-du-Cher
149.00
304.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.20
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.832.59
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.12
dominance (last 5)0.360.55
elo1330.571567.19
elo momentum (last 5)35.0814.91
eye test v1-0.780.10
eye trend v1-0.200.18
first sub minute (last 10)49.0059.30
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.40
keeper form v10.690.57
league points18.0059.00
league rank22.007.00
matches since blank0.0020.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6083.00
possession avg (last 5)47.8057.40
rest days13.9613.96
scorer concentration0.210.18
season ppg0.561.74
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.801.80
shots for avg (last 5)5.809.60
skill v1-0.551.18
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.20
squad age25.4226.45
state index-0.400.51
sterile dominance v10.241.09
threat rate (last 10)0.210.20
threat rate (last 3)0.140.21
threat rate (last 5)0.170.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.80