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AJ Auxerre 1–2 Stade Brestois 29

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexandre Castro, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AJ Auxerre win42%2.29
Draw31%3.16
Stade Brestois 29 win27%3.62

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'⚽Julien Faussurier · Stade Brestois 29
55'🟨Gaëtan Belaud · Stade Brestois 29
57'⚽Jordan Adeoti · AJ Auxerre
61'🟨Birama Touré · AJ Auxerre
68'⚽Habib Diallo · Stade Brestois 29
86'🟨Pierre-Yves Polomat · AJ Auxerre

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots9
6On target4
1Corners4
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAJ AuxerreStade Brestois 29
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.20
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.650.52
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
98.00
616.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.09
corner diff avg (last 5)2.202.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.972.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.14
dominance (last 5)0.500.56
elo1478.451542.82
elo momentum (last 5)48.83-16.19
eye test v1-0.85-0.41
eye trend v10.180.03
first sub minute (last 10)60.3061.50
form points (last 5)11.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.450.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.760.68
league points41.0052.00
league rank14.009.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4080.00
possession avg (last 5)49.0061.40
rest days14.007.00
scorer concentration0.260.19
season ppg1.371.63
shot diff avg (last 5)0.002.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.209.80
skill v1-0.491.14
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.20
squad age25.7827.77
state index0.54-0.05
sterile dominance v1-0.190.92
threat rate (last 10)0.250.22
threat rate (last 3)0.260.25
threat rate (last 5)0.230.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20