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Orleans 1–4 Nimes

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win50%1.95
Draw29%3.38
Orleans win22%4.41

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'⚽ (og)Cédric Cambon · Nimes
45'⚽Romain Del Castillo · Nimes
49'🟨Steve Furtado · Orleans
50'⚽Fethi Harek · Nimes
61'⚽Yannick Gomis · Orleans
62'🟨Gauthier Gallon · Orleans
63'⚽ (pen)Umut Bozok · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
8Shots15
7On target11
3Corners9
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOrleansNimes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.690.49
cards avg (last 5)1.802.40
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Source
2077.00
859.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.260.15
corner diff avg (last 5)1.803.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.001.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.163.23
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.33
dominance (last 5)0.430.70
elo1445.951584.60
elo momentum (last 5)35.056.63
eye test v1-0.530.44
eye trend v1-0.340.22
first sub minute (last 10)59.8069.00
form points (last 5)11.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.50
keeper form v10.710.69
league points41.0058.00
league rank13.005.00
matches since blank8.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0074.40
possession avg (last 5)46.2054.80
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.180.37
season ppg1.321.87
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.406.80
shots for avg (last 5)6.4011.40
skill v1-0.410.11
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.705.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.676.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.60
squad age28.4925.09
state index0.040.31
sterile dominance v10.12-0.01
threat rate (last 10)0.190.26
threat rate (last 3)0.190.30
threat rate (last 5)0.190.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80