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Reims 4–0 Chateauroux

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aurelien Petit, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win57%1.70
Draw26%3.68
Chateauroux win17%5.87

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Xavier Chavalerin · Reims
28'⚽Rémi Oudin · Reims
40'🟨Yannick M'Bone · Chateauroux
57'⚽Diego · Reims
68'⚽Yunis Abdelhamid · Reims
82'🟨Aly Ndom · Reims

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
11Shots6
7On target3
4Corners3
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReimsChateauroux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.590.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.520.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.640.49
cards avg (last 5)1.001.20
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Delaune
312.00
1620.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.20-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.206.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.003.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.732.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.05
dominance (last 5)0.400.46
elo1637.201506.71
elo momentum (last 5)8.1443.34
eye test v10.31-0.12
eye trend v1-0.080.12
first sub minute (last 10)52.8063.10
form points (last 5)12.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.45
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v10.820.84
league points81.0060.00
league rank2.004.00
matches since blank6.009.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.6074.40
possession avg (last 5)44.6045.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.240.21
season ppg2.381.76
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.80-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.0011.00
skill v1-1.08-0.50
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.20
squad age25.9125.50
state index0.410.60
sterile dominance v1-0.60-0.51
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.180.31
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.402.00