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Niort 1–4 Nimes

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win53%1.83
Draw25%3.82
Niort win22%4.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Umut Bozok · Nimes
4'⚽David Djigla · Niort
13'🟨Thibaut Vion · Niort
19'🟨Laurent Agouazi · Niort
30'🟨Sofiane Alakouch · Nimes
34'🟨Laurent Agouazi · Niort
34'🟥Laurent Agouazi · Niort
36'⚽Rachid Alioui · Nimes
60'⚽Umut Bozok · Nimes
83'⚽Rachid Alioui · Nimes
84'🟥Didier Lamkel Zé · Niort

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
1Shots20
1On target15
1Corners4
3Yellow cards1
2Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNiortNimes
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)—0.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)—0.28
box share (last 5)—0.44
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days602.00845.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade René-Gaillard
3.00
3.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.202.50
elo1393.701563.63
elo momentum (last 5)-27.46-42.33
eye test v10.18-0.30
eye trend v10.11-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)63.3068.60
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.17
keeper form v10.610.73
league points29.0046.00
league rank15.003.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.2075.40
possession avg (last 5)43.6057.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.270.35
season ppg1.121.77
skill v1-1.090.40
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.60
state index-0.92-0.51
sterile dominance v1-1.060.46
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.300.25
threat rate (last 5)0.300.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.40