⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Ajaccio 3–2 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio win47%2.06
Draw29%3.39
Sochaux win24%4.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Cedric Avinel · Ajaccio
18'🟥Jean-Louis Leca · Ajaccio
22'⚽Florin Berenguer · Sochaux
29'🟨Kévin Lejeune · Ajaccio
37'🟨Zakarya Bergdich · Sochaux
79'🟨Adolphe Teikeu · Sochaux
84'⚽ (og)Joris Sainati · Sochaux
85'⚽Riad Nouri · Ajaccio
90'🟨Anthony Marin · Ajaccio
90'⚽Riad Nouri · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
7Shots7
5On target2
4Corners0
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAjaccioSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.570.50
cards avg (last 5)1.000.80
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade François-Coty
267.00
267.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d6.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.17
corner diff avg (last 5)2.002.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.807.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.552.12
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.11
dominance (last 5)0.490.48
elo1469.561501.92
elo momentum (last 5)-34.6944.11
eye test v10.370.43
eye trend v1-0.470.05
first sub minute (last 10)61.8046.40
form points (last 5)3.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.58
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v10.67—
league points81.0053.00
league rank1.007.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet8.004.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0072.00
possession avg (last 5)52.2052.80
rest days6.837.00
scorer concentration0.180.23
season ppg1.531.71
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.6013.20
skill v1-0.42-0.28
sot against avg (last 5)3.806.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.905.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.676.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.805.40
squad age28.9925.79
state index-0.790.36
sterile dominance v1-0.23-0.58
threat rate (last 10)0.240.28
threat rate (last 3)0.220.32
threat rate (last 5)0.250.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40