⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Ajaccio 3–2 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio win47%2.06
Draw29%3.39
Sochaux win24%4.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Cedric Avinel · Ajaccio
18'🟥Jean-Louis Leca · Ajaccio
22'⚽Florin Berenguer · Sochaux
29'🟨Kévin Lejeune · Ajaccio
37'🟨Zakarya Bergdich · Sochaux
79'🟨Adolphe Teikeu · Sochaux
84'⚽ (og)Joris Sainati · Sochaux
85'⚽Riad Nouri · Ajaccio
90'🟨Anthony Marin · Ajaccio
90'⚽Riad Nouri · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
7Shots7
5On target2
4Corners0
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAjaccioSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.32
box share (last 5)0.590.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days267.00267.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade François-Coty
6.00
3.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.552.50
elo1442.361481.94
elo momentum (last 5)-35.3330.82
eye test v1-0.170.43
eye trend v1-0.320.05
first sub minute (last 10)61.8046.40
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.35
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.63—
league points72.0043.00
league rank1.008.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet8.003.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0072.00
possession avg (last 5)49.2052.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.180.23
season ppg1.441.65
skill v1-0.42-0.28
sot against avg (last 5)4.006.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.105.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.006.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.40
state index-0.910.18
sterile dominance v1-0.05-0.58
threat rate (last 10)0.250.28
threat rate (last 3)0.240.32
threat rate (last 5)0.220.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40