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Sochaux 3–2 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mehdi Mokhtari, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win39%2.49
Le Havre AC win31%3.14
Draw30%3.23

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Jean-Philippe Mateta · Le Havre AC
18'⚽Jean-Philippe Mateta · Le Havre AC
34'🟨Alexandre Bonnet · Le Havre AC
39'⚽Yakou Méïté · Sochaux
60'⚽Yoann Touzghar · Sochaux
77'🟨Denys Bain · Le Havre AC
82'⚽Florin Berenguer · Sochaux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
24Shots10
13On target5
8Corners1
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.31
box share (last 5)0.520.72
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days260.00503.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bonal
4.00
3.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.412.28
elo1472.031528.91
elo momentum (last 5)28.483.72
eye test v1-0.04-0.80
eye trend v1-0.330.18
first sub minute (last 10)48.2058.90
form points (last 5)10.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.340.82
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
keeper form v1—0.70
league points40.0043.00
league rank9.005.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4073.80
possession avg (last 5)51.2046.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.250.26
season ppg1.601.72
skill v1-0.66-0.50
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.503.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.80
state index0.210.02
sterile dominance v1-0.62-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.310.24
threat rate (last 5)0.290.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.00