⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Nimes 2–2 Tours

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephane Jochem, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win68%1.44
Draw20%4.92
Tours win13%7.68

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Umut Bozok · Nimes
31'⚽Rachid Alioui · Nimes
33'⚽John Tshibumbu · Tours
36'🟨Romain Del Castillo · Nimes
40'🟨Antoine Devaux · Tours
45'🟨Samson Mbingui · Tours
70'🟨Pierrick Valdivia · Nimes
90'⚽Cheick Diarra · Tours

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
8Shots9
3On target4
5Corners2
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNimesTours
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.510.57
cards avg (last 5)2.402.00
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Costières
838.00
107.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.10
corner diff avg (last 5)6.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.204.60
corners for avg (last 5)9.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.921.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.21
dominance (last 5)0.680.50
elo1572.191289.65
elo momentum (last 5)-52.22-11.35
eye test v10.21-0.11
eye trend v1-0.450.17
first sub minute (last 10)68.4046.30
form points (last 5)2.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.05
keeper form v10.770.71
league points51.0012.00
league rank6.0022.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win5.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2076.60
possession avg (last 5)61.2050.40
rest days4.007.00
scorer concentration0.340.15
season ppg1.820.43
shot diff avg (last 5)6.60-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.209.00
skill v10.940.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
squad age24.5625.14
state index-0.27-1.15
sterile dominance v10.830.14
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.00