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AJ Auxerre 0–0 Nimes

← Ligue 2 2017 · Mon, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aurelien Petit, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win42%2.33
AJ Auxerre win30%3.27
Draw29%3.38

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Birama Touré · AJ Auxerre
26'🟨Romain Del Castillo · Nimes
47'🟨Pierrick Valdivia · Nimes
53'🟨Teji Savanier · Nimes
57'🟨Birama Touré · AJ Auxerre
57'🟥Birama Touré · AJ Auxerre
61'🟨Abdoulaye Sissako · AJ Auxerre
74'🟨Liassine Cadamuro · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
3Shots10
1On target5
2Corners6
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAJ AuxerreNimes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.36
box share (last 5)0.620.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days73.00834.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
2.00
3.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.303.05
elo1443.931572.99
elo momentum (last 5)46.90-11.52
eye test v1-0.460.61
eye trend v1-0.06-0.52
first sub minute (last 10)61.7068.60
form points (last 5)11.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.34
keeper form v10.680.74
league points30.0044.00
league rank13.004.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2079.20
possession avg (last 5)53.8060.40
rest days10.0310.03
scorer concentration0.320.34
season ppg1.251.83
skill v10.430.99
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.305.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.60
state index0.40-0.02
sterile dominance v10.370.62
threat rate (last 10)0.250.28
threat rate (last 3)0.230.21
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20