⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Racing Club de Lens 1–1 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2017 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win58%1.67
Draw25%3.90
Valenciennes win17%5.73

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Julien Masson · Valenciennes
35'🟨Loris Néry · Valenciennes
44'⚽Sloan Privat · Valenciennes
55'🟨Lossemy Karaboue · Valenciennes
85'🟨Dušan Cvetinović · Racing Club de Lens
90'🟨Walid Mesloub · Racing Club de Lens
90'🟨Baptiste Aloé · Valenciennes
90'⚽Dušan Cvetinović · Racing Club de Lens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots4
4On target1
5Corners6
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.160.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.160.17
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.560.58
cards avg (last 5)2.201.20
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
173.00
771.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.420.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.15
dominance (last 5)0.480.43
elo1548.591431.20
elo momentum (last 5)-13.61-22.74
eye test v1-0.98-1.16
eye trend v1-0.56-0.33
first sub minute (last 10)56.5059.60
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.790.64
league points35.0034.00
league rank13.0014.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.0012.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4073.20
possession avg (last 5)58.4049.80
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.170.33
season ppg1.301.26
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.008.60
skill v10.98-0.36
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.60
sot for avg (last 3)1.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)1.602.00
squad age24.5227.01
state index-0.17-0.62
sterile dominance v10.85-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.230.22
threat rate (last 3)0.180.22
threat rate (last 5)0.210.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20