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Niort 2–3 Orleans

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephanie Frappart, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort win39%2.46
Draw31%3.11
Orleans win29%3.31

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽ (og)Adrien Monfray · Niort
8'⚽ (pen)Ferris N'Goma · Orleans
20'⚽Ousmane Cissokho · Orleans
58'🟨Pierre Bouby · Orleans
62'🟨Adrien Monfray · Orleans
65'⚽Thibaut Vion · Niort
76'🟨Jimmy Roye · Niort
90'⚽Yohan Demoncy · Orleans

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
12Shots8
5On target5
4Corners4
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNiortOrleans
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.67
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.53
box share (last 5)0.580.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days588.002049.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade René-Gaillard
3.00
3.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.42
elo1413.291429.03
elo momentum (last 5)-28.936.31
eye test v1-0.11-0.20
eye trend v10.110.62
first sub minute (last 10)65.7057.90
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.88
keeper form v10.600.51
league points29.0030.00
league rank14.0011.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2071.60
possession avg (last 5)44.8044.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.280.22
season ppg1.211.25
skill v1-0.60-0.89
sot against avg (last 5)3.002.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.00
state index-0.82-0.33
sterile dominance v1-0.66-0.16
threat rate (last 10)0.260.19
threat rate (last 3)0.280.22
threat rate (last 5)0.280.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00