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Nimes 1–1 Ajaccio

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win53%1.84
Draw28%3.52
Ajaccio win20%4.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Ghislain Gimbert · Ajaccio
16'🟨Sada Thioub · Nimes
38'🟨Anthony Marin · Ajaccio
46'🟨Mady Camara · Ajaccio
53'⚽Ghislain Gimbert · Ajaccio
74'⚽Sada Thioub · Nimes
79'🟨Renaud Ripart · Nimes
90'🟨Anthony Marin · Ajaccio
90'🟥Anthony Marin · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots6
7On target2
7Corners1
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNimesAjaccio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.44
box share (last 5)0.550.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days824.00246.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Costières
5.00
9.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.062.51
elo1577.391473.29
elo momentum (last 5)-21.4317.18
eye test v10.51-0.08
eye trend v1-0.450.06
first sub minute (last 10)67.4058.80
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.490.82
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
keeper form v10.720.64
league points43.0068.00
league rank3.001.00
matches since blank1.0010.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2073.00
possession avg (last 5)58.2048.60
rest days6.216.21
scorer concentration0.350.18
season ppg1.871.55
skill v10.73-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)6.003.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.60
state index0.03-0.22
sterile dominance v10.38-0.33
threat rate (last 10)0.310.28
threat rate (last 3)0.240.29
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.20