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Le Havre AC 2–1 Nimes

← Ligue 2 2017 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Leonard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win37%2.64
Le Havre AC win32%3.05
Draw31%3.09

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Rachid Alioui · Nimes
22'🟨Ebenezer Assifuah · Le Havre AC
23'🟨Fethi Harek · Nimes
31'🟨Yacouba Coulibaly · Le Havre AC
41'⚽ (pen)Jean-Philippe Mateta · Le Havre AC
53'🟨Sofiane Alakouch · Nimes
56'🟨Sada Thioub · Nimes
63'🟨Zinedine Ferhat · Le Havre AC
66'⚽Harold Moukoudi · Le Havre AC
90'🟨Victor Lekhal · Le Havre AC
90'🟨Fethi Harek · Nimes
90'🟥Fethi Harek · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
8Shots7
4On target3
5Corners7
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Havre ACNimes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.34
box share (last 5)0.660.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days483.00818.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Océane
3.00
4.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.253.14
elo1522.151587.54
elo momentum (last 5)-9.24-2.07
eye test v1-0.870.78
eye trend v1-0.42-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)61.2062.50
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.45
keeper form v10.700.74
league points37.0043.00
league rank6.003.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0080.60
possession avg (last 5)49.6059.00
rest days7.793.83
scorer concentration0.250.36
season ppg1.681.95
skill v10.021.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.406.30
sot for avg (last 3)1.676.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.605.80
state index-0.130.30
sterile dominance v10.350.34
threat rate (last 10)0.210.33
threat rate (last 3)0.150.29
threat rate (last 5)0.190.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.80