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Racing Club de Lens 0–1 Orleans

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sylvain Palhies, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win60%1.62
Draw24%3.99
Orleans win16%6.23

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Maxime D'Arpino · Orleans
33'🟨Adrien Monfray · Orleans
37'🟨Gabriel Mutombo · Orleans
40'🟥Karim Ziani · Orleans
48'⚽Yannick Gomis · Orleans
81'🟨Cristian López · Racing Club de Lens
85'🟨Cédric Cambon · Orleans
88'🟨Gauthier Gallon · Orleans

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots5
2On target5
9Corners2
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensOrleans
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.40
box share (last 5)0.580.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days158.002035.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
2.00
3.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.952.39
elo1514.701402.89
elo momentum (last 5)36.93-1.39
eye test v10.20-0.28
eye trend v1-0.210.08
first sub minute (last 10)56.7054.00
form points (last 5)11.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.05
keeper form v10.720.53
league points25.0024.00
league rank14.0015.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6077.20
possession avg (last 5)50.8055.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.180.20
season ppg1.191.09
skill v10.370.46
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.80
state index0.59-0.65
sterile dominance v10.070.89
threat rate (last 10)0.240.17
threat rate (last 3)0.270.17
threat rate (last 5)0.260.17
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.00