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AJ Auxerre 1–1 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Cedric Dos Santos, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AJ Auxerre win40%2.40
Draw31%3.13
Paris FC win28%3.41

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

48'⚽Herve Lybohy · Paris FC
57'🟨Hamza Sakhi · AJ Auxerre
60'🟨Frédéric Bong · Paris FC
86'🟨Frédéric Bong · Paris FC
86'🟥Frédéric Bong · Paris FC
90'🟨Abdoul Ba · AJ Auxerre
90'⚽Mickael Tacalfred · AJ Auxerre

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots3
2On target2
10Corners5
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAJ AuxerreParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.570.52
cards avg (last 5)1.401.20
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
56.00
239.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.21
corner diff avg (last 5)2.603.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.402.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.006.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.163.12
defensive leak (last 5)0.220.14
dominance (last 5)0.570.52
elo1429.621524.78
elo momentum (last 5)14.0537.24
eye test v1-0.260.24
eye trend v10.280.53
first sub minute (last 10)61.4062.20
form points (last 5)7.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.620.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.620.81
league points30.0051.00
league rank15.003.00
matches since blank5.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0081.60
possession avg (last 5)50.2052.20
rest days7.004.00
scorer concentration0.350.28
season ppg1.201.96
shot diff avg (last 5)2.602.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.209.00
skill v10.170.68
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.60
squad age26.2329.11
state index-0.100.42
sterile dominance v1-0.070.37
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40