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Nancy 2–2 Stade Brestois 29

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mehdi Mokhtari, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nancy win41%2.37
Stade Brestois 29 win30%3.25
Draw30%3.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'⚽ (og)Ádám Lang · Stade Brestois 29
38'⚽Édouard Butin · Stade Brestois 29
58'⚽Amine Bassi · Nancy
70'🟨Amine Bassi · Nancy
74'⚽Modou Diagne · Nancy
89'🟨Anthony Weber · Stade Brestois 29
90'🟨Bruno Grougi · Stade Brestois 29
90'🟨Johan Gastien · Stade Brestois 29

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
10Shots8
4On target4
9Corners6
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNancyStade Brestois 29
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.110.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.140.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.530.66
cards avg (last 5)2.000.60
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Picot
4.00
574.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.20
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)2.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.511.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.13
dominance (last 5)0.470.51
elo1448.871560.49
elo momentum (last 5)-22.54-5.39
eye test v1-1.100.74
eye trend v1-0.13-0.78
first sub minute (last 10)58.8056.60
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.101.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.710.76
league points24.0044.00
league rank17.005.00
matches since blank0.0011.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win4.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2077.00
possession avg (last 5)50.4051.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.350.15
season ppg0.961.69
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.400.20
shots for avg (last 5)7.6010.80
skill v1-0.010.14
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.505.90
sot for avg (last 3)1.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)1.806.20
squad age27.8628.04
state index-0.740.06
sterile dominance v10.010.02
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.220.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.402.20