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Paris FC 2–1 Ajaccio

← Ligue 2 2017 · Mon, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeremy Stinat, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win40%2.46
Draw33%2.97
Ajaccio win28%3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Dylan Saint-Louis · Paris FC
28'🟨Dylan Saint-Louis · Paris FC
29'🟨Ghislain Gimbert · Ajaccio
45'⚽Dylan Saint-Louis · Paris FC
49'🟨Cedric Avinel · Ajaccio
66'🟨Thibault Vialla · Ajaccio
77'🟨Joris Sainati · Ajaccio
88'⚽Ghislain Gimbert · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
6Shots9
4On target3
3Corners4
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParis FCAjaccio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.550.55
cards avg (last 5)1.201.00
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Charléty
235.00
235.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.25
corner diff avg (last 5)3.80-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)2.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.122.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.14
dominance (last 5)0.510.45
elo1516.881503.05
elo momentum (last 5)29.6512.96
eye test v1-0.15-0.21
eye trend v10.430.51
first sub minute (last 10)62.2057.70
form points (last 5)11.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.40
keeper form v10.830.76
league points48.0071.00
league rank4.001.00
matches since blank5.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8073.00
possession avg (last 5)54.6041.80
rest days6.002.83
scorer concentration0.300.21
season ppg1.921.65
shot diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.806.80
skill v10.86-0.93
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.902.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.80
state index0.50-0.14
sterile dominance v10.61-1.11
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.270.36
threat rate (last 5)0.230.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.20