⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Nimes 3–0 Chateauroux

← Ligue 2 2017 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win59%1.65
Draw24%4.04
Chateauroux win17%5.75

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟥Sidy Sarr · Chateauroux
22'🟨Christophe Mandanne · Chateauroux
27'🟨Richard-Quentin Samnick · Chateauroux
29'🟨Cheik Traoré · Chateauroux
30'⚽Renaud Ripart · Nimes
58'🟨Pierrick Valdivia · Nimes
68'⚽ (pen)Umut Bozok · Nimes
81'⚽Rachid Alioui · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots3
9On target1
8Corners4
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNimesChateauroux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.35
box share (last 5)0.610.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days811.001572.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Costières
2.00
2.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.551.33
elo1595.461508.17
elo momentum (last 5)22.2429.75
eye test v10.600.38
eye trend v1-0.590.42
first sub minute (last 10)63.8066.00
form points (last 5)12.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.03
keeper form v10.760.73
league points40.0034.00
league rank3.008.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8074.80
possession avg (last 5)51.2041.40
rest days3.753.75
scorer concentration0.380.24
season ppg2.001.62
skill v10.00-0.77
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)6.503.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.80
state index0.880.46
sterile dominance v1-0.65-1.40
threat rate (last 10)0.370.30
threat rate (last 3)0.300.38
threat rate (last 5)0.330.35
venue ppg (last 5)2.402.00