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Sochaux 1–0 Nancy

← Ligue 2 2017 Β· Fri, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Bastien Dechepy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win45%2.16
Draw30%3.25
Nancy win25%3.84

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Laurent Abergel · Nancy
55'🟨Joeffrey Cuffaut · Nancy
62'🟨Abou Ba · Nancy
65'🟨Zakarya Bergdich · Sochaux
72'🟨Adolphe Teikeu · Sochaux
76'🟨Malaly Dembele · Nancy
90'⚽ (pen)Florian Martin · Sochaux

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots6
5On target0
3Corners0
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxNancy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.19
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.20
box share (last 5)0.450.59
cards avg (last 5)0.801.40
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Bonal
232.00
171.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.603.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.202.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.472.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.17
dominance (last 5)0.590.52
elo1448.171457.42
elo momentum (last 5)0.48-31.71
eye test v11.04-0.52
eye trend v1-0.330.09
first sub minute (last 10)54.8058.40
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.710.74
league points37.0024.00
league rank10.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4080.40
possession avg (last 5)55.2053.80
rest days6.833.00
scorer concentration0.260.35
season ppg1.541.00
shot diff avg (last 5)3.800.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.208.80
skill v10.340.66
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)6.202.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.602.60
squad age23.5626.20
state index-0.01-0.66
sterile dominance v10.000.19
threat rate (last 10)0.280.26
threat rate (last 3)0.200.29
threat rate (last 5)0.280.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00