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Valenciennes 1–1 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC win40%2.41
Draw30%3.24
Valenciennes win30%3.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Arnaud Balijon · Le Havre AC
5'⚽ (pen)Tony Mauricio · Valenciennes
21'🟨Sikou Niakaté · Valenciennes
35'🟨Thiago Xavier · Valenciennes
54'🟨Yacouba Coulibaly · Le Havre AC
73'⚽Jean-Philippe Mateta · Le Havre AC
78'🟨Sébastien Roudet · Valenciennes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots9
5On target4
4Corners4
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValenciennesLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.590.61
cards avg (last 5)1.401.40
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Hainaut
749.00
475.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.007.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)0.792.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.240.12
dominance (last 5)0.460.53
elo1428.761552.77
elo momentum (last 5)-41.268.10
eye test v1-0.59-0.70
eye trend v1-0.40-0.34
first sub minute (last 10)58.9061.40
form points (last 5)2.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.61—
league points30.0040.00
league rank13.007.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet9.004.00
matches since win6.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0075.60
possession avg (last 5)50.8046.00
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.350.22
season ppg1.251.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.600.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.209.20
skill v1-0.21-0.37
sot against avg (last 5)6.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.00
squad age25.9824.31
state index-1.110.20
sterile dominance v10.13-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.22
threat rate (last 5)0.210.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20