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Reims 1–0 Tours

← Ligue 2 2017 Β· Tue, Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Stephanie Frappart, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win70%1.38
Draw19%5.07
Tours win10%9.39

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Julian Jeanvier · Reims
50'🟨Mory Kone · Tours
59'🟨Anthony Lippini · Tours
76'🟨Grejohn Kyei · Reims
82'🟨Pablo Chavarria · Reims

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots10
6On target4
6Corners6
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricReimsTours
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.740.42
cards avg (last 5)1.202.20
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Delaune
260.00
76.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.260.03
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.982.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.22
dominance (last 5)0.530.52
elo1618.201301.01
elo momentum (last 5)44.26-32.35
eye test v1-0.25-0.21
eye trend v10.20-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)61.7051.20
form points (last 5)15.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.00-2.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.402.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.00
keeper form v10.83β€”
league points56.009.00
league rank2.0022.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.2080.00
possession avg (last 5)47.4050.80
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.270.22
season ppg2.430.39
shot diff avg (last 5)1.001.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.6010.60
skill v1-0.840.41
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.60
state index1.20-1.58
sterile dominance v1-0.370.16
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.260.25
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.00