⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Niort 0–0 Nancy

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Jan 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Romain Delpech, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort win38%2.57
Nancy win32%3.01
Draw30%3.30

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

56'🟨Julien Da Costa · Niort
59'🟨Didier Lamkel Zé · Niort
59'🟨Alaeddine Yahia · Nancy

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots10
2On target2
2Corners4
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNiortNancy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.580.59
cards avg (last 5)2.401.20
coach days560.00164.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.17
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade René-Gaillard
corner diff avg (last 5)
-2.00
3.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.002.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.542.73
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.22
dominance (last 5)0.440.47
elo1481.231467.08
elo momentum (last 5)27.93-23.11
eye test v1-0.17-0.16
eye trend v1-0.25-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)65.9058.00
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.530.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v1—0.62
league points34.0023.00
league rank10.0015.00
matches since blank10.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.0011.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0077.20
possession avg (last 5)44.6051.80
rest days28.0028.00
scorer concentration0.270.35
season ppg1.551.05
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.207.60
skill v1-0.950.19
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.60
squad age26.9528.59
state index0.23-0.49
sterile dominance v1-0.63-0.01
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.210.28
threat rate (last 5)0.250.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80