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Stade Brestois 29 2–3 Ajaccio

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Jan 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stade Brestois 29 win50%1.96
Draw28%3.55
Ajaccio win23%4.31

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Yoane Wissa · Ajaccio
26'⚽Riad Nouri · Ajaccio
37'⚽Ghislain Gimbert · Ajaccio
73'⚽Édouard Butin · Stade Brestois 29
76'🟨Yoane Wissa · Ajaccio
78'⚽Gaëtan Charbonnier · Stade Brestois 29
79'🟨Gaëtan Belaud · Stade Brestois 29
80'🟨Yann Boé-Kane · Ajaccio
90'🟨Lenny Pintor · Stade Brestois 29
90'🟨Ghislain Gimbert · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
11Shots9
4On target5
4Corners0
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStade Brestois 29Ajaccio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.470.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.610.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.570.31
box share (last 5)0.570.71
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days560.00225.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis-Le-Blé
0.00
0.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.752.55
elo1533.711457.93
elo momentum (last 5)30.62-5.33
eye test v11.47-1.11
eye trend v10.34-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)59.1059.40
form points (last 5)12.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.05
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.730.72
league points34.0054.00
league rank5.001.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6075.20
possession avg (last 5)45.6053.60
rest days28.0028.00
scorer concentration0.170.19
season ppg1.791.54
skill v1-0.610.11
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)6.102.30
sot for avg (last 3)8.671.67
sot for avg (last 5)8.002.00
state index0.64-0.20
sterile dominance v1-0.880.86
threat rate (last 10)0.270.17
threat rate (last 3)0.290.10
threat rate (last 5)0.310.15
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40