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Valenciennes 1–2 Chateauroux

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Jan 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephanie Frappart, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valenciennes win44%2.22
Draw28%3.45
Chateauroux win28%3.51

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Julien Masson · Valenciennes
35'🟨Cheik Traoré · Chateauroux
42'🟨Thiago Xavier · Valenciennes
53'⚽Grégory Bourillon · Chateauroux
86'🟨Sofiane Khadda · Chateauroux
90'⚽Sidy Sarr · Chateauroux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots8
4On target4
5Corners5
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValenciennesChateauroux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.550.43
cards avg (last 5)1.401.40
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Hainaut
742.00
1564.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)0.991.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.220.05
dominance (last 5)0.490.48
elo1453.941410.08
elo momentum (last 5)-12.7211.35
eye test v10.34-0.35
eye trend v1-0.280.16
first sub minute (last 10)55.7062.50
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
keeper form v10.65—
league points30.0031.00
league rank12.0011.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8078.00
possession avg (last 5)51.4049.80
rest days27.0028.00
scorer concentration0.360.20
season ppg1.361.41
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.009.00
skill v10.020.14
sot against avg (last 5)6.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.40
squad age27.6927.36
state index-0.52-0.04
sterile dominance v10.230.06
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.29
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40