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Nimes 0–1 Racing Club de Lens

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Jan 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephane Jochem, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win52%1.87
Draw26%3.78
Racing Club de Lens win22%4.43

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Karim Hafez · Racing Club de Lens
47'⚽ (og)Fethi Harek · Racing Club de Lens
49'🟨Frederic Duplus · Racing Club de Lens
65'🟨Jean-Kévin Duverne · Racing Club de Lens
75'🟨Filip Marković · Racing Club de Lens
90'🟥Dušan Cvetinović · Racing Club de Lens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots9
9On target3
6Corners3
0Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNimesRacing Club de Lens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.620.53
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Costières
803.00
144.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.18
corner diff avg (last 5)1.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.741.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.08
dominance (last 5)0.640.50
elo1618.711562.20
elo momentum (last 5)19.0415.29
eye test v11.010.51
eye trend v1-0.34-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)62.6060.20
form points (last 5)12.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.142.25
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.35
keeper form v10.700.66
league points43.0030.00
league rank4.0013.00
matches since blank16.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0079.40
possession avg (last 5)50.8048.20
rest days30.0025.00
scorer concentration0.370.19
season ppg2.151.36
shot diff avg (last 5)6.600.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.4010.00
skill v1-0.420.17
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)6.205.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.605.60
squad age24.1224.37
state index1.190.50
sterile dominance v1-1.030.02
threat rate (last 10)0.360.27
threat rate (last 3)0.350.25
threat rate (last 5)0.350.24
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.20