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Reims 5–1 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2017 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Eric Wattellier, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win65%1.50
Draw22%4.36
Valenciennes win12%7.83

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Lossemy Karaboue · Valenciennes
17'⚽Jordan Siebatcheu · Reims
39'⚽Jordan Siebatcheu · Reims
43'⚽Pablo Chavarria · Reims
58'🟨Danilson Da Cruz · Reims
73'⚽Jordan Siebatcheu · Reims
75'⚽Pablo Chavarria · Reims
76'🟨Lossemy Karaboue · Valenciennes
90'🟨Lenny Nangis · Valenciennes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
12Shots9
8On target4
6Corners4
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReimsValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.680.62
cards avg (last 5)2.001.00
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Delaune
229.00
715.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.18
corner diff avg (last 5)2.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.941.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.14
dominance (last 5)0.530.49
elo1599.701463.08
elo momentum (last 5)21.6211.15
eye test v1-0.600.38
eye trend v1-0.240.05
first sub minute (last 10)62.3058.20
form points (last 5)11.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.820.69
league points50.0030.00
league rank2.0012.00
matches since blank4.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.006.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6076.60
possession avg (last 5)48.6051.00
rest days8.007.83
scorer concentration0.190.38
season ppg2.381.43
shot diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.2010.00
skill v1-0.510.07
sot against avg (last 5)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.20
squad age25.9326.00
state index0.78-0.09
sterile dominance v1-0.070.16
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.190.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.80