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Clermont 0–2 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2017 Β· Fri, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Romain Delpech, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win49%2.01
Draw27%3.59
Sochaux win24%4.02

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

52'🟨Ludovic Ajorque · Clermont
59'🟨Jean Ruiz · Sochaux
63'⚽Thomas Robinet · Sochaux
78'🟨Martin Kavdanski · Clermont
82'⚽Bryan Lasme · Sochaux
90'🟨Remy Dugimont · Clermont

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots12
7On target11
8Corners3
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.510.55
cards avg (last 5)2.802.20
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied
1993.00
197.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.17
corner diff avg (last 5)0.002.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.003.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.005.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.003.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.18
dominance (last 5)0.470.56
elo1511.551455.78
elo momentum (last 5)-5.9216.09
eye test v10.190.91
eye trend v10.460.14
first sub minute (last 10)58.7055.40
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.720.65
league points35.0034.00
league rank6.009.00
matches since blank8.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.006.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4072.60
possession avg (last 5)50.4054.40
rest days4.007.00
scorer concentration0.320.29
season ppg1.671.62
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.203.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.8012.20
skill v10.32-0.11
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.805.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.006.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.206.60
squad age24.4225.12
state index-0.09-0.12
sterile dominance v1-0.40-0.34
threat rate (last 10)0.290.29
threat rate (last 3)0.340.32
threat rate (last 5)0.310.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80